Most People Have No Idea What's About To Happen" - Cathie Wood's Last WARNING

Cathie Wood is an American investor and the founder, CEO, and CIO of ARK Invest, an investment firm focused on disruptive innovation. She is known for her bullish stance on technologies like artificial intelligence, genomics, blockchain, and electric vehicles. Wood gained widespread attention for her early investments in companies like Tesla and her aggressive predictions about their growth. Despite market volatility, she remains a prominent advocate for high-risk, high-reward investing strategies.

凯茜-伍德（Cathie Wood）是美国投资家，也是专注于颠覆性创新的投资公司 ARK Invest 的创始人、首席执行官兼首席信息官。她因看好人工智能、基因组学、区块链和电动汽车等技术而闻名。伍德因早期对特斯拉等公司的投资以及对其增长的积极预测而广受关注。尽管市场动荡，她仍然是高风险、高回报投资策略的杰出倡导者。

Most people are not aware of it or haven't thought very carefully about it because it doesn't seem to matter to us . This is getting to be so serious that we are reaching a cathartic moment and I do think it's started I think this cathartic moment is good . It's painful, very short term . These corrections are because there's a lot of confusion .

大多数人并没有意识到这一点，也没有仔细思考过，因为这对我们来说似乎并不重要。事情变得如此严重，以至于我们到了一个宣泄的时刻，我认为它已经开始了，我认为这个宣泄时刻是好的 . 这是痛苦的，短期的 这些修正是因为有很多困惑 .

A lot of people have assumed that the world was going to work one way and all of a sudden it's not fear is seeping into the markets in many ways and in many indicators, let's just look at the numbers first M2 growth peaked at 27% in 2020 and has been slowing ever since we believe it is closing in or might be below 3% on a year-over-year basis uh, which doesn't leave a lot of room for growth or inflation unless velocity is really picking up the rate at which money turns over and we're in an Environ M where we do not believe velocity is picking up if anything I think individuals and businesses are becoming more concerned and are spending less freely If you look at M2 .

很多人都认为世界会以一种方式运转，但突然之间却不是了，恐惧正以多种方式和多种指标渗入市场，让我们先看看数字，M2 增长率在 2020 年达到 27% 的峰值，此后一直在放缓，我们认为它正在接近或可能低于 3% 的同比增长率、 除非货币流通速度真正加快，否则增长或通胀的空间不大，而我们所处的环境是，我们认为货币流通速度并没有加快。

Also, you'l see that it actually peaked in March now . This is very unusual to see sequential declines in money we have not gotten back above that March Peak and we may not get back above it the way that fed policy is going and I think uh I'd like to build the case a little more here that the FED is probably making a mistake. I say it probably because I have to from a compliance point of view, but I really do believe the FED is making a mistake and reflecting a little bit more on the Jackson Hole speech that chairman Powell gave in late August . We've come to recognize that chair Powell really does think he is The Reincarnation of chair vulker that we need him to take a sledgehammer to inflation much like vulker did and history has treated chairman vulker very kindly .

另外，你会发现货币汇率实际上在三月份达到顶峰。这是非常不寻常的，因为我们还没有回到 3 月份的峰值之上，而且按照美联储政策的走向，我们可能也不会回到峰值之上。我之所以说 “可能”，是因为我必须从合规的角度出发，但我确实认为美联储正在犯错误，并对鲍威尔主席 8 月底在杰克逊霍尔发表的讲话进行了更多反思......。我们已经认识到，鲍威尔主席真的认为自己是瓦尔克主席的转世，我们需要他像瓦尔克主席那样用大锤敲打通胀，而历史对瓦尔克主席非常友好。

He did turn the tide on inflation now what he did though was he turned a tide that had been built for 15 years . It started in 1964 with the Vietnam War and with the Great Society so many social programs started at that time under President Johnson and for 15 years fiscal and monetary policy pretty much went rogue as we look at history even after shocks to the system like the oil embargo and the stimulus that came about because of it . Both monetary and fiscal policy . We never saw the kind of slowdown in monetary and fiscal policy that we're seeing right now federal spending is still down 14% on a year-over-year basis . You never saw a decline in fiscal policy spending in the 70s .

他确实扭转了通货膨胀的趋势，但他所做的是扭转了已经形成了 15 年的趋势。从 1964 年的越战开始，到约翰逊总统领导下的 “伟大社会 ”计划（Great Society），许多社会项目都是在那个时候启动的。我们回顾历史，在长达 15 年的时间里，财政和货币政策几乎都是无政府主义，即使是在石油禁运等系统冲击以及由此产生的刺激政策之后也是如此。货币和财政政策都是如此。我们从未见过货币和财政政策像现在这样放缓 联邦支出仍同比下降 14% . 在上世纪 70 年代，你从未见过财政政策支出的下降 .

Monetary policy seemed to be on automatic pilot . Back then the dollar was getting crushed toward the end of the 7s adding to inflationary fire, so chairman Vulker choked off money supply and killed inflation . It took a long time for people to believe that inflation had peaked . In fact, I don't think many people believe it peaked as it did in 1981 until 1986, when oil prices crashed, so the inflation expectations were embedded in the system and it was very difficult and Vulker did a masterful job, so that was over a 15-year period that inflation had built by the time the FED got around to tackling it .

货币政策似乎是自动驾驶的。当时，美元在 7 年代末被压得喘不过气来，加剧了通货膨胀，因此，沃克主席掐断了货币供应，扼杀了通货膨胀。过了很长时间，人们才相信通货膨胀已经达到顶峰。事实上，我认为直到 1986 年油价暴跌时，才有很多人相信通胀在 1981 年达到顶峰，因此，通胀预期已经根植于系统中，这非常困难，而武克的工作非常出色，因此，在 15 年的时间里，当联邦储备委员会开始处理通胀问题时，通胀已经形成 .

This time, it was not a 15-year problem . It was a 15-month problem and from our point of view, it was caused primarily by major shocks to the system that we had never seen We had not had Spanish influenza, a global pandemic and we did not have supply chain problems two years worth of them that we had because of the covid panic and then, of course, we had another shock to top those off and that was Russia's invasion of Ukraine, so these are shocks to the system .

这一次，它不是一个 15 年的问题......而是一个 15 个月的问题。从我们的角度来看，这主要是由我们从未见过的对系统的重大冲击造成的。我们没有经历过西班牙流感，没有经历过全球大流行，也没有经历过因科维德恐慌而造成的长达两年的供应链问题，当然，我们还经历了另一个冲击，那就是俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，所以这些都是对系统的冲击......。

This was not a period of embedding inflation expectations and yet the chairman pal is taking a sledgehammer that is actually bigger, much bigger . It's at least six times bigger right now and could be 8 to 10 times bigger if the Fed raises the FED funds rate and what do I mean by that ? Well, chairman Vulker was dealing with double-digit interest rates . He took interest rates from 10% to 20% now . By the time he did , consumers and businesses had gotten used to maneuvering around inflation, while that sounds shocking, going from 10 to 20% and it did have some shock value .

这并不是一个嵌入式通胀预期的时期，然而主席帕尔正拿着一把大锤，这把大锤实际上更大，大得多。现在至少大了六倍，如果美联储提高联邦基金利率，可能会大八到十倍。好吧，武尔克主席面对的是两位数的利率。他把利率从 10%提高到现在的 20%。当他这样做的时候，消费者和企业已经习惯了与通货膨胀周旋，虽然这听起来令人震惊，但从10％到20％，它确实有一些震撼的价值。

It wasn't the same as what we're experiencing today with chairman pal and the FED . Today we've gone from 0.25% on the FED funds rate to five, not a two-fold increase . Now many people I was interviewed by someone the other day and said oh yeah, but that was such a low base . There's no comparison in fact that makes this even more dramatic . That's what so interesting people dismiss this way of thinking about . It said oh yeah, but the bass was solo . The base was so low and it had been really since 2008 and 9 because we were in a terrible crisis then and it took a long time to get out of it and so we did not have inflation expectations built into the system I really don't believe it at all and yet chairman Poell is behaving as though what's going on today with INF inflation is much worse than what Vulker inherited starting from a low base is really shocking .

这与我们今天所经历的帕尔主席和美联储的情况不同 . 今天，我们已经从 0.25% 的美联储基金利率上升到 5%，而不是两倍的增长 . 现在很多人在接受我采访时说，哦，是的，但那是一个很低的基数. 事实上，这没有任何可比性，这使得这更加戏剧性 . 这就是人们否定这种思维方式的有趣之处 . 它说，哦，是的，但低音是独奏 . 基数是如此之低，它已经真的自2008年和9，因为我们是在一个可怕的危机，然后，它需要很长的时间来摆脱它，所以我们没有通货膨胀的预期建立在系统中，我真的不相信它在所有，但主席波尔的行为，仿佛今天发生的INF通胀比什么Vulker继承了从低基数开始是非常糟糕的，真的令人震惊 。

The system, especially given how long interest rates have been low, so I question the premise of those who say oh this is so different . It's such a low base that's the whole point . It's a low base. This will be a 16-fold increase compared to vul's two-fold increase . Now we have been expecting serious financial ramifications and other ramifications because of this monetary policy and we've got the first one, but most people here in the United States are not aware of it or haven't thought very carefully about it because it doesn't seem to matter to us uh, but I was in the UK around the time that it had its near Leman moment .

这个系统，尤其是考虑到低利率已经持续了很长时间，所以我对那些说 “哦，这太不一样了 ”的人的前提表示怀疑......。基数如此之低，这才是关键所在。这是一个低基数。这将是16倍的增长，而Vul的增长是2倍 . 现在，我们一直在期待严重的金融后果和其他后果 因为这种货币政策 我们已经得到了第一个 但在美国这里的大多数人都没有意识到它 或者没有仔细想过它 因为它似乎并不重要对我们来说 呃

Near Leman moment means the financial system implosion now what do we mean by that ? Well, there is something called ldi liability driven investing and it's where pension funds match their liabilities with assets, so they will in its pure form . They will match one for one the amount that they have to pay out to pensioners as they retire Now it would be great if they did match assets with liabilities completely from safety to the system point of view, but they don't and with banks and a very low interest rate environment they got used to using derivatives and taking shortcuts to try and accomplish the same goal and after a very long period of very low interest rates, I heard someone say the other day and we were talking about this LDI crisis in the UK .

接近莱曼时刻意味着金融系统内爆，这是什么意思呢？有一种投资叫负债驱动型投资，就是养老基金将其负债与资产相匹配。如果从系统安全的角度来看，养老基金确实做到了资产与负债的完全匹配，那就再好不过了，但事实并非如此，在银行和极低利率的环境下，他们习惯于使用衍生工具和走捷径来实现同样的目标，而在经历了很长一段时间的极低利率之后，我听到有人说，前几天我们在讨论英国的 LDI 危机......"。

The reason it's so serious is pension fund sponsors were beginning to think and banks were beginning to think that interest rates would stay very low for a very long time, for as far as the eye could see and that assumption was built into The kind of derivative activity they were doing. No one expected a sharp increase in interest rates . Well, once that happened pensions began getting margin calls and they couldn't meet them . In fact, if interest rates had gone to 8% and I think they got to 6% over there if they got to 8% .

问题之所以如此严重，是因为养老基金发起人和银行都开始认为，利率将在很长一段时间内保持在非常低的水平，而且会一直保持下去。没有人预料到利率会急剧上升 一旦出现这种情况 养老金就开始收到追缴保证金的通知 而他们无法满足这些要求 事实上 如果利率上升到8% 我想他们会上升到6% 如果上升到8%的话

Then, according to some of the people close to that situation whom we have consulted , the pension system would have collapsed, but it wouldn't really have been the pension system what really would have collapsed if the pension funds were not meeting those margin calls were the banks the counterparties in this case for these derivatives and so the bank of England had to step in and basically say pretty much the same thing that dry said . The chairman of the European Central Bank in 2011 basically said we're going to pull out all stops no matter what , while Boe had been almost forced because of currency depreciation into following our fed with higher interest rates .

然后，根据我们咨询过的一些接近这种情况的人的说法，养老金制度会崩溃，但它不会真的是养老金制度，如果养老基金没有满足这些保证金要求，真正会崩溃的是银行，在这种情况下，这些衍生品的交易对手，所以英格兰银行不得不介入，基本上说几乎同样的事情干说。欧洲中央银行主席在2011年基本上说，无论如何，我们都会采取一切措施，而波伊几乎是被迫的，因为货币贬值，跟随我们的美联储提高利率。

This was going to cause a great deal of harm to uh its system and so it had to reverse its policy, so this is another reversal in policy or it's a bit of a shift in policy, so now all of these pension funds in Coration with the banks are deleveraging, so what do you do if you're deleveraging in an IL liquid environment ? All markets are experiencing duress today I think the FED is a big part of that, so what do you do ? You sell the most liquid assets what are Those are government bonds, and so we're seeing US government bonds which are held in broad pension funds being sold even though deflationary pressures are mounting all over the place . We think this is a bit of a financial crisis and we think we'll see it elsewhere as the FED continues to raise interest rates as it seems want to do .

这将对其系统造成巨大伤害，因此它不得不扭转政策，这是另一次政策扭转，或者说是政策的转变，现在所有这些与银行合作的养老基金都在去杠杆化，如果你在一个流动性不足的环境中去杠杆化，你会怎么做？今天，所有市场都在经历压力，我认为美国联邦储备委员会（FED）是其中重要的一部分，那么你会怎么做？你会出售流动性最强的资产，这些资产就是政府债券，所以我们看到，尽管通货紧缩的压力在各地不断增加，但美国政府却在出售广泛的养老基金持有的政府债券。我们认为这有点像金融危机，我们认为随着美国联邦储备委员会继续提高利率，我们会在其他地方看到它，因为它似乎想这样做。

Certainly, this week was full of speeches from all the FED members reminding everyone that they're going to take interest rates up until we get to 2% inflation by that time I think they will be deleveraged and will be P the maximum pressure associated with this guilt trip . We're seeing other changes we've seen China intervene to limit the weakening of the Yuan . We've seen Japan doing the same now what is that what are they doing when they do that well when Japan is trying to support its currency at 1 145 Yen to the dollar what it does is it sells dollars and buys back Yen now .

当然，本周所有美国联邦储备委员会（FED）成员都发表了讲话，提醒大家他们将提高利率，直到我们的通胀率达到 2%。我们看到了其他的变化，我们看到中国进行干预以限制人民币走软。我们看到日本现在也在做同样的事情，当他们这样做的时候，他们在做什么呢？当日本试图将其货币支撑在 1 美元兑 145 日元的水平时，他们所做的就是卖出美元，买回日元。

That's good in a way, it's doing some of what the FED should be doing here . Actually, it's providing dollar liquidity to the rest of the world China is doing the same thing and so we'll see what happens here I think this is getting to be so serious that we are reaching a cathartic moment and I do think it started with the guilt trip and the FED has acknowledged that there are international ramifications to what it is doing, but it is thinking first and foremost about the US .

这在某种程度上是好事，它做了一些美联储应该做的事情。事实上，它在向世界其他国家提供美元流动性，中国也在做同样的事情，所以我们会看到这里会发生什么。我认为这已经变得非常严重，我们正在达到一个宣泄的时刻，我确实认为这是从内疚之旅开始的，FED已经承认它正在做的事情会产生国际影响，但它首先考虑的是美国.

This reminds me a lot of the early 80s and what happened in the early 80s were two Accords, the uh loua Accord and the plaza Accord, where the treasury ministers around the world all agreed to sell dollars to limit the deflationary impact on the rest of the world and when I say deflationary impact, there are countries sure their currencies are falling apart, so their inflation rate looks like they're in hyperinflation or heading in that direction, but they are being strangled by Dollar denominated debt that they cannot surf, so so this ends up being quite a deflationary situation longer term .

这让我想起了80年代初 80年代初发生了两份协议，《路易协议》和《广场协议》 世界各国的财政部长都同意抛售美元 以限制通货紧缩对世界其他地区的影响 当我说通货紧缩的影响时，有些国家的货币正在分崩离析，所以他们的通胀率看起来像是处于恶性通胀或正朝着那个方向发展，但他们正被以美元计价的债务所扼杀，他们无法冲浪，所以从长远来看，这最终会成为一个相当通货紧缩的局面......

We're wondering what in the US is the weak link, is it our pensions . We don't know we know there are ldi strategies in the United States . They're not as leveraged as we understand, but one never knows if not what some of the weak links that we're seeing . We've been worrying about auto credit for a while now and now we have more reasons . Yesterday we got the Manheim used car index . Its value index pricing effectively and it dropped another 3% plus it was 4% plus decline last month and so what we have now is the year-over-year increase has gone from 54% to minus 0.1, so there you go fed . There's another indication that deflation is in the system that index peaked in January and is now down 14% just since January it's declining at more than a 20% rate now .

我们想知道美国的薄弱环节是什么，是我们的养老金吗 . 我们不知道，我们知道美国有 ldi 战略 . 它们的杠杆作用并不像我们所理解的那样，但我们永远不知道我们看到的薄弱环节是什么 . 我们担心汽车信贷已经有一段时间了，现在我们有更多的理由 . 昨天，我们得到了曼海姆二手车指数 . 其价值指数定价有效，它又下降了3％，加上它是4％，再加上下降上个月，所以我们现在有什么是同比增长已从54％负0.1，所以你去美联储 . 还有一个迹象表明，通货紧缩正在系统中，该指数在1月份达到顶峰，现在下降了14％，自1月份以来，它以超过20％的速度下降.

Why is this important ? Well, a lot of auto paper out there makes assumptions or investors make assumptions about the residual values of cars and those residual values have been going up maybe not as much as the used car index, but they have been firm if we're right. The used car price index is going to collapse here . Why do many people buy cars during covid because they wanted to avoid mass transit under normal conditions ? They didn't need that car .

为什么这很重要？很多汽车媒体或投资者都会对汽车的剩余价值做出假设，而这些剩余价值一直在上涨，也许涨幅没有二手车指数那么大，但如果我们判断正确的话，它们一直都很坚挺。二手车价格指数将在此崩溃。为什么很多人在雪灾期间买车，因为他们想在正常情况下避开公共交通？他们并不需要那辆车。

Nonetheless, they were quite happy to see used car prices going up with the thought that when the coast is clear they would sell back into the market into the used car market and, as I mentioned, used car prices were up 54% on a year-over-year basis at one point now they're flat to down and now dealers who were paying too much for used cars are sitting on losses and they are going to have to discourage those inventories because inventories cost money to carry, especially as interest rates are going up, so they're going to be forced to sell and we believe that's already happening and there's about a trillion dollar of Auto paper now . This won't be a systemic risk, but because Auto Paper was the best performing paper during 0809 . This is going to be quite a surprise to a number of investors what's another weak link in the United States ?

尽管如此，他们还是非常乐于看到二手车价格上涨，并认为一旦时机成熟，他们就会重返二手车市场、 二手车价格曾一度同比上涨 54%，现在则持平或下跌。现在，那些为二手车支付了过高价格的经销商正处于亏损状态，他们将不得不抑制这些库存，因为库存是要花钱的，尤其是在利率上升的情况下，所以他们将被迫出售，我们认为这已经在发生了，现在大约有一万亿美元的汽车票据......。这不会成为系统性风险，但因为汽车票据是 0809 年期间表现最好的票据 . 这对许多投资者来说将是一个相当大的惊喜 美国的另一个薄弱环节是什么？

Well, corporations have a lot of debt . Why do they have a lot of debt ? Well, they've been catering to short-term shareholders who want them to buy back shares and don't mind that they're leveraging up to do so or they want them to pay dividends and don't mind that they're leveraging up becoming more indebted . Well, this is becoming a big problem for certain sectors of the economy that are in the throws of disruption both cyclical and secular and I think the retail sector is one of those .

公司有很多债务。为什么会负债累累呢？因为他们一直在迎合短期股东的要求，这些股东希望他们回购股票，而且不介意他们为此而增加杠杆，或者希望他们支付股息，而且不介意他们增加杠杆，变得更加负债累累。嗯，这对某些处于周期性和世俗性混乱中的经济部门来说，正成为一个大问题，我认为零售业就是其中之一......

We remain astonished at the inventory buildup taking place out there and the way we're looking at this now from a deflationary point of view and you know we think that's the biggest risk now out there is the pipeline is full of deflationary indicators starting from Commodities and we'll get into that in a moment, but at the end of the pipeline Downstream at the consumer level retailers are a wash in inventories and the latest one pretty Prov Pro active is Nike and Nike is both a retailer but it mostly sells to retail Nike's inventories increased 44% . There were already telltale signs that the consumer was weakening its North American inventories were up 68% and the inventories in transit mostly from Asia, so they're on ships that were up 85% .

我们仍然对目前的库存积压感到震惊，我们现在从通货紧缩的角度来看待这个问题，你知道，我们认为这是目前最大的风险，因为从大宗商品开始，管道中充满了通货紧缩的指标，我们稍后将讨论这个问题、 耐克既是一家零售商，但主要销售对象是零售商，耐克的库存增加了 44%。已经有迹象表明消费者正在减弱，耐克在北美的库存增加了 68%，而主要来自亚洲的在途库存则增加了 85%。

You know what's going to happen in order to clear the shelves Nike is going to have to cut prices and retailers will as well and we believe this is just a microcosm of a much broader problem out there and we think we'll see it in full force, so we took a look at the data for the last month because the FED is saying that it's data driven, so if it's data driven, let's do that if you look at the data ' 80s 9s 2000s you'll see that inflation came down during times when the economy was very strong .

我们认为这只是更广泛问题的一个缩影，我们认为我们将看到它的全面爆发，所以我们看了一下上个月的数据，因为联邦储备委员会说这是数据驱动的，所以如果是数据驱动的，让我们来做，如果你看看数据'80 年代 9 年代 2000 年代，你会看到通货膨胀在经济非常强劲的时候下降。

Why is it's because productivity growth is a byproduct a critical byproduct and an anti-inflationary byproduct of good strong recoveries let's go to the commodity prices again . Datadriven fed are you listening . We'll start with from their peaks . We've got copper down 30 Lumber down 73% think that housing is collapsing . Iron oil was down 45% and infrastructure around the world has run into trouble, especially China corn was down 177% silver down 29 dram prices, which are chip semiconductors down 46%, the Baltic Freight index down 48% . That's an indicator of supply chain issues: the Baltic Freight dry index, which is just for dry goods, down 65% oil down 29% and many people have been dismissing these and saying yeah, but they went to Skyhigh prices .

为什么呢？因为生产力增长是一个重要的副产品，是良好强劲复苏的一个抗通胀副产品，让我们再来看看商品价格。数据驱动的美联储 你在听吗 我们先从最高点开始 铜价下跌了 30% 木材下跌了 73% 认为住房正在崩溃 . 铁油下跌了 45%，世界各地的基础设施都遇到了麻烦，尤其是中国 玉米下跌了 177% 白银下跌了 29% 芯片半导体价格下跌了 46%，波罗的海货运指数下跌了 48% . 这是供应链问题的一个指标：波罗的海货运干货指数（仅指干货）下跌 65%，石油下跌 29%，许多人一直在否定这些，并说是的，但它们涨到了天价......。

You know, they're still not down on a year-over-year basis . That's not true anymore. Copper is down 177% Lumber is down 28% on a year-over-year basis . There's another kind of esoteric price out there I remember it from my days diving deeply into economics and it's container board prices . This gives you a sense of how tight the Box Market is because of the huge amount of trade taking place, so they are down 29% from their peak and about 53% from a year ago just taking the evidence and putting it together like this . There is a lot of data to be driving the FED, which is what they say is happening, but we don't think it's happening I just rattled off lots of examples, so let's go to the markets and then wrap up pretty quickly here . Not much to say, markets are ining off across the board and that's very unusual It's associated with crisis and more convincing evidence to us that the FED is too tight and that it will pivot and when it does it will do so.

要知道，它们的同比增长率并没有下降......。现在已经不是这样了。铜价下跌了 177%，木材价格同比下跌了 28%......。还有一种深奥的价格，我在深入研究经济学的时候还记得它，那就是集装箱板材价格 . 由于贸易量巨大，这可以让你感觉到箱板市场的紧张程度，因此箱板价格比峰值下降了 29%，比一年前下降了 53%。有很多数据可以推动美联储，这就是他们所说的正在发生的事情，但我们并不认为它正在发生。没有什么可说的，市场全面下跌，这是非常不寻常的，这与危机有关，对我们来说，更有说服力的证据表明，FED太紧张了，它会转向，当它转向时，它会这样做。

We think significantly now first, it might simply be rhetoric because they always like to tee us up for what the next moves are going to be and we haven't heard that rhetoric yet. Despite all the evidence I just shared with you , that evidence I just shared with you tells us that the FED is going to get the message loudly and clearly somehow and it may not be showing through in the numbers they want to see, but it will it will . They are huge lagging indicators . They're basing policy on lagging indicators, not what they're supposed to be doing if you take equities and bonds and look at what's happened since the peak .

我们认为，现在首先要做的可能只是说说而已，因为他们总是喜欢向我们预告下一步的行动，而我们还没有听到他们的说辞。尽管我刚刚与你们分享了所有的证据，但我刚刚与你们分享的证据告诉我们，联邦储备委员会将以某种方式大声而清晰地传达信息，它可能不会以他们希望看到的数字显示出来，但它会的。它们是巨大的滞后指标。他们的政策是建立在滞后指标的基础上的，而不是他们应该做的，如果你把股票和债券放在一起，看看自峰值以来发生了什么.......

You will see that the loss to investors is more than twice what we saw in' 08 09 . That's how bad this is because bonds are selling off with stocks this time and one of the reasons for that is a seizing up of liquidity . As I mentioned, if people are facing margin calls or in financial difficulty they're going to sell their most liquid asset, they will have no choice, especially with margin calls . Most liquid assets tend to be government bonds and I think that's why we're seeing the backup in government bonds here despite all of the deflationary signals in the pipeline.

你会发现投资者的损失是 08-09 年的两倍多。这就是问题的严重性，因为这次债券与股票一起被抛售，原因之一就是流动性的枯竭。正如我所提到的，如果人们面临追加保证金或财务困难，他们就会抛售流动性最强的资产，他们别无选择，尤其是在追加保证金的情况下。流动性最强的资产往往是政府债券，我认为这就是为什么尽管通货紧缩的信号不断出现，我们仍能看到政府债券的后备力量。

Interestingly, it feels like we're moving towards a cathartic moment is going to result in some financial signals that the FED will have to pay attention to maybe it didn't have to pay attention to the guilt trip, but it should be because it is the reason that near Leman event happened in the UK it is as dark as before dawn . We think the pivot is close and we certainly hope that the Fed gets away from this need for unanimity and a united front when really we have all of these fed members and presidents for a reason to debate and we feel that that debate is being stifled . The debate should be driven by data, but it cannot be if it were they would not be unanimous in their thinking right now .

有趣的是，我们感觉我们正在走向一个宣泄的时刻，这将导致一些金融信号，美联储将不得不关注，也许它不必关注内疚之旅，但它应该关注，因为它是在英国发生的近莱曼事件的原因，它是黎明前的黑暗................... 我们认为枢轴已经接近，我们当然希望美联储能够摆脱这种一致和统一战线的需要，而实际上我们有所有这些美联储成员和主席进行辩论的理由，我们觉得这种辩论正在被扼杀。辩论应该由数据来驱动，但这是不可能的，如果是这样的话，他们现在就不会有一致的想法了。

The markets are moving very, very rapidly, as I'm sure you've noticed the stock markets uh correcting quite significantly . The correction we've seen in the last week bond yields are falling fairly dramatically, commodity prices are falling and, in some cases, breaking down yield spreads the spread between high yield Bond rates and treasury bills I mean treasury bonds that spread are starting to gap out, so fear is seeping into the markets in many ways and in many indicators I'm going to say this is slower than all at once, so we have been talking about the rolling recession that has been in place actually since the FED started raising rates at 22 .

市场走势非常非常快，我相信你们已经注意到了，股市正在大幅调整。我们在上周看到的修正是债券收益率大幅下降，大宗商品价格下跌，在某些情况下，打破收益率利差，即高收益债券利率与国库券之间的利差，我的意思是国库券的利差开始出现缺口，因此恐惧正以多种方式渗入市场，在许多指标上，我要说这比一下子要慢，所以我们一直在谈论滚动式衰退，实际上自美联储22日开始加息以来就一直存在。

As soon as the FED started raising housing rates effectively went into a recession, commercial real estate offices were already in a recession. Now multifam real estate seems to be an issue now we've seen autos stall out . They've kind of stabilized but stalled out at subpar meaning subnormal expansion rates we're seeing capital spending come down . We're seeing consumer confidence relapse housing is starting to pick up its head and has relapsed again certainly if you're looking at sales, so we've had a rolling recession and now we seem to be in the all at once phase .

美国联邦储备委员会（FED）一开始提高住房利率，经济实际上就进入了衰退期，而商业地产办公室已经陷入了衰退。现在，我们已经看到汽车业停滞不前，多层次房地产似乎也是一个问题。我们看到资本支出下降。我们看到消费者信心回落，住房开始回升并再次回落，当然，如果你看销售，所以我们已经有了一个滚动的衰退，现在我们似乎是在所有的一次阶段 .

Many people are beginning to understand . We think that perhaps the idea that inflation is the problem has been misplaced and this rolling recession is going to end with pricing coming down, so I've been saying the risk is deflation prices coming down and listening to Amazon's report last night, it's clear the consumer wants lower prices and is getting lower prices . The consumer is not falling apart, yet it's actually responding to some of the lower prices even in Autos, but nonetheless falling prices, which is a problem for companies , means their margins are going to compress all at once, has to do with deflationary signals .

许多人开始明白......。我们认为，认为通胀是问题所在的想法也许是错误的，这种滚动式衰退将以价格下降而结束，所以我一直在说通货紧缩的风险是价格下降，听了亚马逊昨晚的报告，很明显消费者想要更低的价格，并且正在得到更低的价格。消费者并没有崩溃，他们实际上对一些低价做出了反应，即使是汽车，但价格下降对公司来说是个问题，这意味着他们的利润将被一下子压缩，这与通货紧缩信号有关。

Now this week we have got the PMI purchasing managers index and today the employment report . Both of those are recessionary, so this idea of we're in a recession is beginning to gain more traction and, in fact, the PM rule in the unemployment report basically the unemployment rate going up by 50 basis points as measured on a 3month moving average basis relative to its low that triggered and so a lot more people are now thinking recession now we're not thinking at all when we say anything at once, anything like 0809 .

本周，我们将公布 PMI 采购经理人指数和今天的就业报告。这两份报告都是衰退性的，因此，我们正处于衰退中的观点开始得到更多的关注，事实上，失业报告中的总理规则基本上是失业率相对于其触发的低点上升了 50 个基点，以 3 个月移动平均值来衡量，因此，现在有更多的人认为经济正在衰退，当我们说任何事情的时候，我们根本没有想到任何类似于 0809 的事情。

In fact, the rolling recession part of this scenario would argue that we're not at all suggesting that, but we are suggesting that this focus now on pricing power is going to be significant and the reason it's significant is in the early 80s when fed chairman Vulker was trying to strangle inflation out of the system with double digit interest rates inflation was also at double digits, so if he was going to make a mistake that was a big buffer to make a mistake, our inflation rates today are much lower and so the FED actually has less room for error and I do believe that higher for longer and thinking that inflation was the big risk out there has put us somewhat In Harm's Way, but half of the solution is understanding the problem and so I think this cathartic moment is good . It's painful for a very short term .

事实上，这种情况中的滚动衰退部分会认为，我们根本没有暗示这一点，但我们暗示，现在对定价能力的关注将是重要的，而之所以重要，是因为在80年代初，当美联储主席武尔克试图用两位数的利率将通货膨胀从系统中扼杀时，通货膨胀率也是两位数、 因此，如果他要犯错，那么犯错的缓冲空间就很大，而我们今天的通胀率要低得多，因此美联储犯错的空间实际上要小得多，而且我确实相信，在更长的时间内保持较高的利率，并认为通胀是最大的风险，这在某种程度上将我们置于危险之中，但解决方案的一半是理解问题，因此我认为这种宣泄的时刻是好的，但短期内是痛苦的.

These corrections are because there's a lot of confusion . A lot of people have assumed that the world was going to work one way and all of a sudden it's not, but as far as Elon spending time making the government more efficient, I'm actually thrilled and there's something that people do not understand about Elon Elon understands that we are in the midst of a massive convergence among technologies and that AI is the biggest Catalyst among the five major Innovation platforms evolving now, so robotics energy storage AI blockchain technology and multiomic sequencing he understands those convergences he's involved in three of them and data is the name of the game . If you look at all of his companies, they're all spewing out different kinds of data that's proprietary and that's the name of the game in terms of winning all kinds of AI races out there and, of course, the government is filled with data itself I don't think that's why he's there he's there to make it more efficient and we're thrilled

这些修正是因为有很多困惑......。很多人都认为世界会以一种方式运转，但突然之间就不是了。但就埃隆花时间提高政府效率而言，我其实很激动，人们对埃隆有些不了解，埃隆明白我们正处于技术大规模融合的过程中，而人工智能是目前发展的五大创新平台中最大的催化剂、 因此，机器人技术、能源存储、人工智能、区块链技术和多组测序技术，他都了解这些融合，他参与了其中的三项，而数据就是游戏的名字。如果你看看他的所有公司，它们都在提供各种专有数据，这就是赢得各种人工智能竞赛的游戏规则，当然，政府本身也充满了数据。

总结：

1. 多数人未意识到或思考当前经济问题，事情已严重到宣泄时刻，这虽痛苦但短期有益。

2. M2 增长率从 2020 年 27% 峰值放缓，可能低于 3%，货币流通速度未加快。

3. 美联储政策可能犯错，鲍威尔像沃克尔一样大力打击通胀，但此次情况不同。

4. 以前通胀是 15 年问题，这次是 15 个月问题，由疫情、供应链、俄乌冲突等冲击导致。

5. 英国养老金 LDI 危机，因利率上升，养老金无法满足保证金要求，英格兰银行干预。

6. 美联储继续加息，市场压力大，各国采取措施，如中国、日本干预货币。

7. 类似 80 年代初协议，现在需关注美元对世界的通缩影响。

8. 美国可能的薄弱环节包括养老金、汽车信贷、企业债务、零售业库存等。

9. 耐克库存大增，零售商将降价清库存，是更广泛问题的缩影。

10. 大宗商品价格下跌，显示通缩迹象，美联储政策未依据数据。

11. 市场全面下跌，投资者损失超 08 - 09 年，债券与股票一起抛售，因流动性枯竭。

12. 美联储应关注金融信号，摆脱一致想法，依据数据辩论。

13. 市场快速变化，股市调整，债券收益率、大宗商品价格下降，恐惧渗入市场。

14. 自美联储加息，经济出现滚动式衰退，现在似乎进入全面衰退阶段。

15. 通胀可能不是问题，滚动式衰退将以价格下降结束，宣泄时刻短期痛苦但有益。